What a farce.
I usually try to keep my political opinions to myself, though I am known to comment from time to time on FB/Twitter. But today’s turn of events are just too farcical to not comment on.
I think it’s fairly clear that the leadership of the current Federal Labor party has not only trashed itself but also the Labor brand. State results of recent years, including the massive wipeout of Labor in Queensland, are pretty reflective of how the brand has been dragged through the mud. I think Federal members are kidding themselves if they don’t recognise the link between the State results and the failings of their Federal counterparts (plus I think state Labor parties have done a massive disservice to themselves but not standing up against their Federal colleagues).
So a leadership spill today ended up with nothing changed. All the pain of the last week for zero gain. Add to this dropping the media censorship legislation (after increasing backlash), in your face broken promises (Carbon Tax, pokies reform, budget surplus, to name a few of the larger ones), leaping on 457 visas when there’s little to no evidence of rorting, as well has half a dozen other issues of late and you get a sense that our Federal government, and it’s leader, is fairly clueless.
And to be clear, I’ve never believed that Federal government and its leadership is going to be the saviour of our country (there’s another guy who does a better job of that).
But given all that’s happened today, here’s my take juicy speculation. Time will tell if my words are prophetic or if you should stone me.
First, Kevin Rudd, despite appearances, has been counting the numbers like mad. He vowed earlier never to put his hand up for leadership unless he was drafted in. He’s got to keep this word in contrast to the clear and many broken words of Gillard over the past few years. So without the clear numbers and nobody to draft him in he remained seated, a happy little Vegemite.
Second, Labor is utterly paralysed. I bet there’s a clear sense that Gillard’s judgement is very poor and polling has always indicated that the people much prefer Rudd (even enough for Rudd to lead them to victory at the next election). Yet Rudd is the man they all cannot stand, even if he is their one electoral hope. They are stuck between the proverbial rock and a hard place.
So here’s my take on what’s going to happen next:
Gillard will continue to lead the longest election campaign in history.
Unless the Coalition does something incredibly bad, the polls will continue to be in their favour.
Labor will be utterly trounced at the election with pretty much all of Gillard’s team losing their seats.
Kevin Rudd, the only popular Labor man, will hold onto his Federal seat. Because of the utter wipeout, he will be the most senior minister and take on the opposition leadership role where he can rebuild the Labor brand distancing himself from Union influence. And because he’s in opposition he won’t have any power to make any bad decisions which caused him to be knifed in the first place.
The following Federal election will be much closer, though I still think the Coalition will win partly because of Electoral history (Australian’s don’t tend to vote out governments too quickly – unless, like Labor, the Coalition has a leadership spill). The following one will be the more interesting election as Rudd will have had time to rebuild the Labor brand and really go after the position again.
There. That’s my political rant for the year.
And just to be doubly clear, I’m not a Liberal nor a Labor man.
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